Friday, 31 August 2012

July 2012 - hottest in world history?

Every crisis has that vital moment where a problem can no longer be ignored, and in regard to global warming, the moment is now.

Say what you will about global warming, but July 2012 was another warmer-and drier-than-average month perhaps the warmest and 28th driest July on record, based on data back to 1895 when weather conditions were averaged across not only in the United States, but the world at large.

It’s now official, globally the month of July ranked as the fourth warmest July since people began keeping records in 1880.

According to the US National Climatic Data Centre (NCDC): “The Northern Hemisphere land surface temperature for July 2012 was the all-time warmest July on record, at 2,14°F above average
. . . the fourth month in a row that the Northern Hemisphere has set a new monthly land temperature record.”

A strong high pressure system reportedly kept its stranglehold over much of the world for most of July, resulting in persistent warm anomalies, disease outbreaks and droughts dominating globally.Indeed, the month of July was the hottest month on record for continental US, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

Take it or leave it, yes, not one of the hottest, or the hottest since — but THE hottest. Previously, critics of human-caused global warming had been able to point out record-setting heat waves from many decades past, indicating that if global warming were true, you would be seeing all the record-breaking heat in the present and not the past. But now it has happened. The present holds the record and the record is only the culmination of a growing trend over the last several seasons.

It could not have been possible to ignore the changing climatic conditions especially as it pertained to the month of July as there were so many signs to contend with.

Towards the end of July, I spent a week feeling dizzy, and it bloomed into a bout of cold. I consulted a medical doctor, who treated me, but the cold refused to completely vanish. I had not in many years been treated for cold, surprisingly (and) when I visited the doctor, he told me that I had to be inoculated “because this kind of cold strain” is different from that which Zimbabweans are accustomed to.

Just in time, the World Health Organisation research of climate factors which influence tropical diseases was commissioned to understand the impact of climate change in sub-Saharan Africa on people's susceptibility to diseases carried by mosquitoes, flies, and snails.

The conclusion was that “extreme” warm temperatures coupled with stagnant waters lingering in flooded areas in Africa and Asia yielded favourable conditions as breeding ground for mosquitoes. In fact mosquitoes had multiplied in dozens that month. It was reported that 2 000 cases of dengue fever with 23 deaths had occurred between January and July 2012 and reflected an increase of 16% compared to the same period of 2011.

While other countries are up to date, Zimbabwe among others is still struggling to establish what could be the cause of the excessive cold outbreaks across the nation. The doctor I have alluded to above believes “it’s something in the family of dengue fever”.

Perhaps or perhaps not, he is an alarmist, I don’t know, but dengue fever is a disease caused by a family of viruses that are transmitted by mosquitoes. It is an acute illness of sudden onset that usually follows a benign course with symptoms such as headache, fever, exhaustion, severe muscle and joint pain, swollen glands and rash. The presence of fever, rash and headache (and other pains) is particularly characteristic of dengue. Other signs of dengue fever include bleeding gums, severe pain behind the eyes, and red palms and soles.

But how could that be, I queried, and was directed to the NCDC report that stated dust from Africa's Sahara Desert was observed to be traversing eastward across the Atlantic Ocean and reached the US during July. Evidence suggests that heavy dust transport has coincided with Caribbean coral declines in the past.

Dry riverbed sediments from Sahara Desert blew western over the Red Sea during the following week. Dust plumes ascended over Latin America as a result of persistent dry conditions around the world. In South Africa there was snow all over, and temperatures fell to two degrees. Talk about global warming.

There is no doubt that rising ocean temperatures have significantly inflicted damage to the environment across the world. Overfishing and influxes of sediment and pollution were cited as contributing factors.

Likewise, another study released in July concluded that greenhouse gas emissions amplify effects of climate change’s influence on the collapse of environment. Deforestation occurring in Madagascar was cited within another study as adversely impacting corals in the western Indian Ocean due to resulting soil erosion.

Drought ravaged vast swaths of Zimbabwe as the record-setting temperatures were making things unbearably worse.

In Zimbabwe and elsewhere in Africa drought has become the default condition, making water rationing a necessity. The City of Kings, as Bulawayo is affectionately known, has been building a water pipeline to bring in crucial water from another town, Gwanda, some 126km away, even with which the water-rationing will continue.

For other dried-out cities and towns the capital Harare, Masvingo, Gweru, Kadoma, Chinhoyi, Gokwe that have not been as proactive as Bulawayo, the record-setting July heat and lack of rain should serve as an alarm.

Drought conditions need to be prepared for, and fast. No municipalities in drought-stricken regions can afford to stick their heads in the sand any longer. Contingency plans must be drawn up. Food for thought!

*millenniumzimbabwe@gmail.com/millenniumzimbabwe@yahoo.com

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